Lucro Presumido in 2026: The Quarterly Trap That Can Squeeze Your Cash Flow

Supplementary Law No. 224/2025 (Lei Complementar nº 224/2025 — LC 224/2025) added 10% to the presumption coefficients of Brazil’s presumed-profit corporate tax regime (Lucro Presumido) for companies with gross revenue above R$ 5 million per year. That much has been widely reported. What few analyses explain is the operational mechanics of the charge—and that is where the trap lies.

In this analysis, we explain how the quarterly rule in Normative Instruction No. 2,306/2026 (Instrução Normativa RFB nº 2.306/2026), issued by Brazil’s federal tax authority (Receita Federal do Brasil), can force companies to prepay the surcharge, what the real impact on cash is, and which steps should be part of your planning.

What Changed in Lucro Presumido

Since 1995, under Law No. 9,249/1995, the presumption coefficients had been stable: 32% for services and 8% for commerce and industry. Supplementary Law No. 224/2025 added 10% to those coefficients for the portion of gross revenue that exceeds R$ 5 million per year:

• Services: from 32% to 35.2%.

• Commerce and industry: from 8% to 8.8%.

Decree No. 12,808/2025 regulated the measure, and Normative Instructions RFB No. 2,305/2025 and No. 2,306/2026 put the charge into operation. The problem lies in an operational detail.

The Trap: The Trigger Is Quarterly, Not Annual

Normative Instruction No. 2,306/2026 established that the revenue threshold for the surcharge is prorated by quarter: R$ 1.25 million per quarter, corresponding to R$ 5 million divided by four.

This means the test is run quarter by quarter, not only against the year-to-date total. If the company exceeds R$ 1.25 million in a single quarter, it pays the 10% surcharge on the excess for that period, regardless of how much it earns in the other quarters.

The annual adjustment only happens in the fourth-quarter assessment. Until then, the money stays with the government.

Who Is Hit Hardest: Companies with Seasonal Revenue

The businesses most affected by this mechanism are those whose revenue is concentrated in certain periods.

Example: an events company with the following revenue distribution:

• First quarter, during Carnival and the summer season: R$ 3 million.

• Second quarter: R$ 500,000.

• Third quarter: R$ 500,000.

• Fourth quarter: R$ 500,000.

• Annual total: R$ 4.5 million, below the R$ 5 million threshold.

Under an annual test, this company would not pay the surcharge. Under the quarterly test in IN 2,306/2026, it exceeds R$ 1.25 million in the first quarter and pays the surcharge on R$ 1.75 million, the difference between R$ 3 million and R$ 1.25 million. The amount is only recovered in the fourth-quarter adjustment.

That is up to nine months of money advanced to the government, needlessly.

Beyond events, this situation can also reach:

• Construction: payments tied to project milestones.

• Consulting and technology projects: contracts with payment concentrated at delivery.

• Tourism: high and low seasons.

• Agribusiness: harvest and off-season cycles.

• Law practices: success fees in significant matters.

The Financial Impact: Beyond the Tax, the Cost of Cash

The problem is not only the additional tax, which can be recovered in the annual adjustment. The problem is the cash-flow mismatch.

For the events company in the example, the first-quarter surcharge applies to R$ 1.75 million:

• Increased base: R$ 1.75 million × 3.2%, the difference between 35.2% and 32% = R$ 56,000.

• Brazil’s corporate income tax (Imposto de Renda da Pessoa Jurídica — IRPJ) at 15% on R$ 56,000 = R$ 8,400.

• Brazil’s social contribution on net profit (Contribuição Social sobre o Lucro Líquido — CSLL) at 9% on R$ 56,000 = R$ 5,040.

• Total prepaid: approximately R$ 13,440 in the first quarter.

That is money leaving working capital at an operational peak—precisely when the company most needs cash—and it only comes back months later. For companies with tight margins, this mismatch can compromise investments, payroll, or supplier payments.

What the Courts Are Saying

The constitutionality of Supplementary Law No. 224/2025 has been challenged on multiple fronts.

Preliminary Injunctions at the Trial Level

• A decision by the 1st Federal Court of Resende, State of Rio de Janeiro, in case No. 5000259-79.2026.4.02.5116—a mandado de segurança, a Brazilian constitutional remedy protecting a clear legal right against an unlawful or abusive act by a public authority or an agent exercising public functions—suspended the increase based on Article 44 of Brazil’s National Tax Code (Código Tributário Nacional — CTN), holding that Lucro Presumido is a method of tax assessment, not a tax benefit.

• A decision by the 26th Federal Civil Court of São Paulo, in mandado de segurança No. 5004081-07.2026.4.03.6100, suspended the increase, noting that the legislature could not turn a form of taxation into a benefit.

• A decision by the 6th Federal Court of São João de Meriti, State of Rio de Janeiro, in mandado de segurança No. 5011528-63.2026.4.02.5101: a collective mandado de segurança filed by the Rio de Janeiro chapter of the Brazilian Bar Association (Ordem dos Advogados do Brasil — OAB) that set aside the increase for law firms in Rio de Janeiro.

Cases Before the STF

• ADI 7920—a direct constitutional challenge (ação direta de inconstitucionalidade — ADI) before Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal — STF), Brazil’s constitutional court—filed by Brazil’s National Confederation of Industry (Confederação Nacional da Indústria — CNI).

• ADI 7936, filed by Brazil’s National Confederation of Health (Confederação Nacional de Saúde — CNS).

• ADI 7944, filed by the OAB.

The central argument is consistent: Lucro Presumido, the challengers contend, is a way of calculating tax, not a benefit subject to across-the-board reduction.

The Tax Authority’s Own Contradiction

COSIT Advance Tax Ruling No. 6/2026 (Solução de Consulta COSIT nº 6/2026), issued by the General Taxation Coordination Office (COSIT) of Brazil’s federal tax authority and published 32 days after Supplementary Law No. 224/2025, stated that government subsidies are not to be confused with acts of tax policy such as the setting of rates, tax bases, or assessment methodologies.

In other words, Brazil’s federal tax authority itself acknowledged that assessment methodologies are not tax benefits. Read together with Supplementary Law No. 224/2025, that position calls the premise of the increase into question: if Lucro Presumido is an assessment methodology under Article 44 of the CTN, classifying it as a benefit for purposes of reduction is legally inconsistent.

What Your Company Should Assess

• Model both Lucro Presumido and Brazil’s actual-profit corporate tax regime (Lucro Real) under the new coefficients. Service companies with an actual margin below 35.2% may find a more favorable scenario under Lucro Real. The comparison should also factor in the effects of the CBS (Contribuição sobre Bens e Serviços, Brazil’s new federal tax on goods and services) starting in 2027.

• Consider judicial relief. The preliminary decisions identified indicate an initial trend favorable to taxpayers. For companies with seasonal revenue, a court measure can avoid both the additional tax and the cash-flow mismatch.

• Review quarterly cash planning. Even without going to court, understanding the assessment calendar is essential. Identify the quarters in which the company will exceed R$ 1.25 million and set aside funds for the surcharge.

Conclusion

The quarterly rule in Normative Instruction No. 2,306/2026 turns the Lucro Presumido increase from a tax problem into a cash problem. For companies with seasonal revenue, the impact goes beyond the tax itself: it is money sitting with the government for months, at the very time the company most needs working capital.

The practical decision is to rerun the numbers, plan the cash, and set a strategy before the next payments come due.

Sources Consulted

• Supplementary Law No. 224/2025 (Lei Complementar nº 224/2025).

• Decree No. 12,808/2025.

• Normative Instructions RFB No. 2,305/2025 and No. 2,306/2026.

• COSIT Advance Tax Ruling No. 6/2026 (Solução de Consulta COSIT nº 6/2026).

• Mandados de segurança Nos. 5000259-79.2026.4.02.5116, 5011528-63.2026.4.02.5101, and 5004081-07.2026.4.03.6100.

• ADIs 7920, 7936, and 7944.

This content is for informational purposes and reflects the sources indicated as of the publication date. It does not replace an analysis of the specific circumstances of each company or case.